Mr Bonner I realise you are correct But between the the Fed & The Big Banks & Microsoft, Apple they have so much Ammunition plus I suppose Telsa they are holding back with what should be happening
But they're all helping in kicking the Can down the road
If you have lived in, worked in, or merely traversed a "big" city in your life, you have become inured to the sight of the big buildings, never caring or considering what is actually "happening" to or with them. Then comes the item on the news about the buildings, and the corporations that "own" them, that they are in distress. Each building should have a huge placard posted on it, listing the "owner", its purpose, and its financial condition, so that people whose livelihoods ultimately depend on the decisions these supposed experts are making in the community can know and understand what is happening to their tax base and ultimately the viability of their physical resources.
Also, overlooked (I wager) in today's quotes from articles is a little bit of nastily lethal poison that probably was missed by many: "rent-controlled". It not only indicates a rigged game, it's morally offensive. No wonder we have the mess on our hands that we do. Best always. PM
As always, having reality based information is the most important economic defense. I've been through 3 or 4 major economic cycles. Rhyming history is the big story and I'm keeping my powder dry.
‘Don’t fight the fed,’ has proven an appropriate dictum for the last 50 years but going forward I’m not so sure. There is only one way out of the debt malaise and that is through deflation because in terms of gold, debt ‘can not’ be inflated away it can only become a bigger liability. I say, follow the gold… the holders will most probably be making the rules!
Pension and retirement funds, including the likes of ‘The Ogre, BlackRock, are generally big holders of commercial real estate.
The balance sheets valuations methodology of ‘match to market’ are reliant on meaningful & preferably independent valuations.
My bet is, there are some very uncomfortable times ahead for these organisations executives, to guarantee beneficiaries etc, are given a true and fair value of underlying investments and thus their funds tied to entitlement savings, equity etc
How will the funds annual returns look?
If the trend of the overall portfolio value of a mixed bag of properties, are going to continually head south, I.e. slip -5% or -20% for a 5 to 10 year cycle, what does this mean to retiree punters?
Probably the correct terminology is, Negative Performance or Result.
Less money back during inflationary cycle that keeps leaping ahead, not stopping anytime soon.
And Oh! The impact on their personal remuneration & bonus, will be a big negative also?
So which regional banks hold the most - or highest proportion to total assets - of commercial real estate loans? And what part of the country are they in? It would be nice to spot the likely icebergs before we actually hit them.
Yes Bill and Joel, It seems like the left coast is experiencing a major decline in real estate prices, as the East coast is having a surge in many states. I think we have been here before...
The banking issues, recession, war, bankrupted cities and states, high crime, riots, burning cities, Mao Zedong, Leonid Brezhnev...ad infinitum... yes, life in the 70's, and all the product of an insane government and their insane policies, but fear not, this too shall pass. Maybe?
When I was a kid, there was not much on TV. A really funny quiz show was “You Bet Your Life” hosted by Karl Marx. He smoked a cigars and had plenty of one liner jokes.
▫️ All people are born alike—except Republicans and Democrats.
▫️ Getting older is no problem. You just have to live long enough.
▫️ I was married by a judge. I should have asked for a jury.
▫️I was misinformed, it was a 10K run not a “bank run”
As each TV quiz show contest commenced; a mangy stuffed duck named Julius (Groucho's real name) would drop from the rafters to reveal the “secret word”.
Ha, ha, knew it all along that Karl was not a Marx brother. Karl was in the trio of Pep Boys Automotive.
No, that’s not right either, that was Manny Moe and Jack.
Oh what’s That again.; the Marx bros stage names were: Chico, Harpo, Groucho, Gummo, and Zeppo. There was a sixth brother, the firstborn, named Manfred.
Now I remember why I went down this rabbit hole. My agenda. Serious anecdote about government overreach; there is nothing new going on today. Get this:
Marx's real name was Julius H. Marx. A internal FBI memo was initialed by six (6) officials, and then-FBI director J. Edgar Hoover who personally responded to at least one (Groucho) letter, enclosing the FBI published pamphlet "What You Can Do to Fight Communism and Preserve America."
Entries to Groucho Marx's Official FBI file ended in the early 1960s. He died in 1977.
If my humor wasn’t so absurd; the fact that after 175 years there is even anything left to discuss about a thoroughly discredited failure which has left a artifact laden trail of remnants to a Communist Manifesto, written by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, first published in 1848!! is what has formed the basis for the modern communist movement as we know it.
It just a movement, like a bowel movement. Continuing to bring up Marxism breathes life back into it. Mea culpa! I do it too, by getting my John Bircher act in retrograde overdrive; so I am just as much of a parasite enabler. It is a mind killer.
I don’t want my name printed But I do not want or can afford to pay more Joel said price wold go up just give me Tom & Dan The guy from Wyoming & Bills free blog he’s interesting so times & funny others That’s it from a old old Lady God Bless.
Appreciate the feedback Nick, however, like Scott, I am inclined to believe the Golden Rule. Whoever has the gold makes the rules. Interesting times, and do enjoy the different perspectives the readers of Bill's missive have on the state of things. Love to know our average age though, cos I think if covid had been a real thing and killed off anyone over 65 most of us wouldn't be around today
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/03/no_author/europe-abandons-all-electric-car-mandate/
This is a must read for some. The rest of us understand thermodynamics.
Mr Bonner I realise you are correct But between the the Fed & The Big Banks & Microsoft, Apple they have so much Ammunition plus I suppose Telsa they are holding back with what should be happening
But they're all helping in kicking the Can down the road
If you have lived in, worked in, or merely traversed a "big" city in your life, you have become inured to the sight of the big buildings, never caring or considering what is actually "happening" to or with them. Then comes the item on the news about the buildings, and the corporations that "own" them, that they are in distress. Each building should have a huge placard posted on it, listing the "owner", its purpose, and its financial condition, so that people whose livelihoods ultimately depend on the decisions these supposed experts are making in the community can know and understand what is happening to their tax base and ultimately the viability of their physical resources.
Also, overlooked (I wager) in today's quotes from articles is a little bit of nastily lethal poison that probably was missed by many: "rent-controlled". It not only indicates a rigged game, it's morally offensive. No wonder we have the mess on our hands that we do. Best always. PM
As always, having reality based information is the most important economic defense. I've been through 3 or 4 major economic cycles. Rhyming history is the big story and I'm keeping my powder dry.
‘Don’t fight the fed,’ has proven an appropriate dictum for the last 50 years but going forward I’m not so sure. There is only one way out of the debt malaise and that is through deflation because in terms of gold, debt ‘can not’ be inflated away it can only become a bigger liability. I say, follow the gold… the holders will most probably be making the rules!
Pension and retirement funds, including the likes of ‘The Ogre, BlackRock, are generally big holders of commercial real estate.
The balance sheets valuations methodology of ‘match to market’ are reliant on meaningful & preferably independent valuations.
My bet is, there are some very uncomfortable times ahead for these organisations executives, to guarantee beneficiaries etc, are given a true and fair value of underlying investments and thus their funds tied to entitlement savings, equity etc
How will the funds annual returns look?
If the trend of the overall portfolio value of a mixed bag of properties, are going to continually head south, I.e. slip -5% or -20% for a 5 to 10 year cycle, what does this mean to retiree punters?
Probably the correct terminology is, Negative Performance or Result.
Less money back during inflationary cycle that keeps leaping ahead, not stopping anytime soon.
And Oh! The impact on their personal remuneration & bonus, will be a big negative also?
Pigs might fly, but NOT outside my window...
So which regional banks hold the most - or highest proportion to total assets - of commercial real estate loans? And what part of the country are they in? It would be nice to spot the likely icebergs before we actually hit them.
Yes Bill and Joel, It seems like the left coast is experiencing a major decline in real estate prices, as the East coast is having a surge in many states. I think we have been here before...
The banking issues, recession, war, bankrupted cities and states, high crime, riots, burning cities, Mao Zedong, Leonid Brezhnev...ad infinitum... yes, life in the 70's, and all the product of an insane government and their insane policies, but fear not, this too shall pass. Maybe?
When I was a kid, there was not much on TV. A really funny quiz show was “You Bet Your Life” hosted by Karl Marx. He smoked a cigars and had plenty of one liner jokes.
▫️ All people are born alike—except Republicans and Democrats.
▫️ Getting older is no problem. You just have to live long enough.
▫️ I was married by a judge. I should have asked for a jury.
▫️I was misinformed, it was a 10K run not a “bank run”
As each TV quiz show contest commenced; a mangy stuffed duck named Julius (Groucho's real name) would drop from the rafters to reveal the “secret word”.
Ha, ha, knew it all along that Karl was not a Marx brother. Karl was in the trio of Pep Boys Automotive.
No, that’s not right either, that was Manny Moe and Jack.
Oh what’s That again.; the Marx bros stage names were: Chico, Harpo, Groucho, Gummo, and Zeppo. There was a sixth brother, the firstborn, named Manfred.
Now I remember why I went down this rabbit hole. My agenda. Serious anecdote about government overreach; there is nothing new going on today. Get this:
Marx's real name was Julius H. Marx. A internal FBI memo was initialed by six (6) officials, and then-FBI director J. Edgar Hoover who personally responded to at least one (Groucho) letter, enclosing the FBI published pamphlet "What You Can Do to Fight Communism and Preserve America."
Entries to Groucho Marx's Official FBI file ended in the early 1960s. He died in 1977.
If my humor wasn’t so absurd; the fact that after 175 years there is even anything left to discuss about a thoroughly discredited failure which has left a artifact laden trail of remnants to a Communist Manifesto, written by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, first published in 1848!! is what has formed the basis for the modern communist movement as we know it.
It just a movement, like a bowel movement. Continuing to bring up Marxism breathes life back into it. Mea culpa! I do it too, by getting my John Bircher act in retrograde overdrive; so I am just as much of a parasite enabler. It is a mind killer.
I don’t want my name printed But I do not want or can afford to pay more Joel said price wold go up just give me Tom & Dan The guy from Wyoming & Bills free blog he’s interesting so times & funny others That’s it from a old old Lady God Bless.
Appreciate the feedback Nick, however, like Scott, I am inclined to believe the Golden Rule. Whoever has the gold makes the rules. Interesting times, and do enjoy the different perspectives the readers of Bill's missive have on the state of things. Love to know our average age though, cos I think if covid had been a real thing and killed off anyone over 65 most of us wouldn't be around today